College Football Week #4: ACC vs. SEQ
CAC vs. DRY. Oh, the images it evokes. bowl games where Alabama’s powerful defense takes on Clemson; intersectional dream games like Miami being skunked by LSU in last year’s Peach Bowl; intense rivalries like Florida vs. Florida State. Now that the ACC has cemented itself with teams like Miami and FSU and Boston College, and now that the SEC is perhaps America’s predominant conference, surely any game involving schools from these two multi-billion dollar entities will set the nation’s ears ringing. . .
Um, maybe not.
This weekend, Wake Forest travels to Mississippi. Yes it’s correct. They still let these teams appear in the league standings every year. Usually at the bottom, but it doesn’t matter.
These schools suck. Every once in a while, a Manning brother lands in Oxford, Mississippi, and makes the rebels decent for a year or two. But otherwise? Put these teams together, and they are a combined 9-24 in their respective conferences over the past two seasons. Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe for post-Eli-Manning ineptitude, and second-year coach Ed Orgeron went 3-8 in his first season at the helm. Wake’s Jim Grobe went 6-5 and 7-6 in his first two years (2001 and 2002), and even led the Deacs to a bowl game in 2002 (of course, it was the Seattle Bowl), but since then it has failed. to post a winning record.
Anyway, they play Oxford this weekend and I like this game from a betting perspective. I’ll talk about the specific players and situations I like in a bit, but trends are good for this game. Wake Forest is 4-1 against the spread in its last five road games, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. They’re also 7-0 ATS in their last seven when they’ve trailed by three points or fewer, which is this week. On the Mississippi side, the Rebs are 0-4 ATS in their last four as favorites, 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight as three-point or under favorites, 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. and 0-6 ATS in his last six following an ATS loss. Bottom line: Bettors evidently value Ole Miss’s name recognition (a Manning will do that), or the fact that they’re in the SEC, more than they should, and despise the fact that Wake is also in a tough conference. . and that the Deacs tend to play extremely close games against favored opponents.
Now to the details. Ole Miss is horrible defensively. They have played three games (Memphs, at Missouri and at Kentucky), and have allowed 152 yards per game on the ground (86th nationally) and 256 yards per game through the air (105th nationally). While I wouldn’t exactly characterize Wake Forest as a “great offense,” they are better than they have been this year. Starting quarterback Ben Mauk is out for the year with a broken arm, but freshman Riley Skinner has shown he can be a good caretaker of what should be a very good running game, behind junior Micah Andrews. . The Demon Deacons want to run and run and run, and Ole Miss knows it. But I wonder if they can do something to stop it.
Where this matchup leans even more in Wake’s direction is the fact that what the Rebels want to do is run. They’ve averaged 172 yards per game on the ground (35th nationally), behind RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and QB Brent Schaeffer, a transfer from the University of Tennessee who is clearly a better running back than he is a shooter. However, Wake Forest has shown that their run defense, especially their linebackers, improved a lot in 2006. The University of Connecticut’s excellent running game couldn’t manage more than three yards per carry against Wake last week (at Storrs). ), and for the season, the Deacons have allowed 2.4 yards per carry, tied for 18th in the country. I mean, they’re not exactly Michigan or Texas in terms of quick defense, and I certainly wouldn’t expect Ole Miss to be completely stumped playing at home (especially after back-to-back embarrassing road losses). But I think it’s a great matchup, pitting the strength of the Wake defense against the strength of the Rebel offense. Also, in all other respects, Wake should have a huge advantage.
Is this an absolute no-brainer? Well, no. Wake isn’t a great team, and when they get to the meat of their ACC schedule, they’ll be turned into little replicas of Tim Duncan. And you never feel good about a stray dog in college football, because you realize stray dogs are stray dogs for a reason. However, as I said at the beginning, I like how this one shakes. I’m taking Wake Forest (+3) in Mississippi. And I guess we’ll save ACC vs. SEC setup for this winter’s bowl season.
Last Week: Hey, a win is a win, right? USC saved a lot of butt at the end of a rather lackluster game against Nebraska, winning 28-10 by 17.5 points. Eek. The game’s early (and hair-raising) dislocated ankle and broken fibula injury to burly Ryan Powdrell certainly didn’t help matters, and the Trojans’ supreme lack of control during the first half made things scary. But in the end, everything worked out. I love those semicircular covers. So for the season, we’re 2-1 against the spread. Hey, 2-1 smells a lot better than 0-1, right?